Supreme Court strikes down emergency tariffs

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Good Morning,

– Truly yours, Fred Frost

📉 Yesterday's Market Recap

Yesterday, markets stumbled as the Supreme Court struck down a chunk of Trump’s tariff program, sparking uncertainty despite a late-week rebound in tech. Futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq dipped 0.2%-0.9% overnight, while bitcoin took a 5% hit below $65,000. It’s a classic case of policy shock meeting investor nerves—let’s unpack the key drivers.

• Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: A 6-3 decision invalidated Trump’s emergency tariffs, leading to a 0.7% drop in Dow futures as investors brace for alternative trade barriers. → CNBC


• Tech Sector Resilience: Despite broader market declines, Amazon surged 5.6% on news of Pershing Square’s increased stake, signaling AI infrastructure bets still have legs. → MarketWatch


• Private Credit Concerns: Blue Owl Capital’s withdrawal restrictions shook private debt markets, dragging Ares Management down 8% and raising questions about credit stability. → ABC News

📉 Daily Performance Snapshot

🔭 What to Watch Today

Today’s calendar brings pivotal events that could sway markets—from Trump’s State of the Union pitch to ongoing fallout from tariff rulings. Keep your eyes on these developments for signals on trade policy and economic sentiment.

💡 Opportunity Watch

Amidst market turbulence, a few bright spots emerge for those with a sharp eye. These opportunities—tied to AI growth and sector-specific wins—could offer upside if you’re positioned right. Let’s explore.

• DBS-Granite AI IPO Fund: A $110 million fund targeting late-stage AI startups offers high-net-worth investors a play on Southeast Asia’s tech boom—alpha returns in sight. → Fortune
• Analog Semiconductors for AI: As AI data centers ramp up, analog chip demand could lift overlooked stocks emerging from a cyclical downturn—worth a second look. → MarketWatch
• Halliburton Indonesia Deal: A new MOU with PT Pertamina to revive aging oil fields signals potential growth in energy services as national production goals rise. → Benzinga

🔥 The Big Bullet

Supreme Court Strikes Down Emergency Tariffs

What happened: The U.S. Supreme Court recently made a major ruling that affects the economy. They decided to strike down most of the president's emergency tariffs. This decision removes the sweeping taxes that were placed on goods coming from other countries. Right after the news broke, the stock market reacted quickly. U.S. stock futures fell, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both saw drops before the market opened. Bitcoin and other digital assets also traded in the red following the announcement. However, some Asian markets actually traded higher on the news. Even though there is new uncertainty, the overall markets have managed to stay relatively calm. Investors are now trying to figure out what this means for global trade.

Why it matters: Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that usually increase costs for businesses and shoppers. When these tariffs were removed, it changed the financial outlook for many large companies. Retailers were getting ready to report their earnings with these extra costs in mind. Now, the focus will shift to tariff costs and potential refunds. The ruling also changes the power dynamic between the United States and other nations. China has been asking the U.S. to stop imposing these one-sided taxes for a long time. This Supreme Court decision invalidating the tariffs gives China more leverage ahead of a high-stakes leaders summit in April. For retail investors, this means the rules of international trade might shift again soon. Understanding these changes helps investors protect their money.

What’s next: The market is still processing this big change, and investors are waiting for more details. We need to watch how the government responds to the court's decision in the coming weeks. The Secretary of the Treasury recently spoke about the future of trade deals and lost tariff revenue. His comments will help guide expectations for new economic policies. We will also see how companies adjust their prices now that the extra import taxes are gone. Additionally, there are still five key takeaways from this landmark decision that will play out over time. Global supply chains might start to shift back to their old patterns. Shoppers could see lower prices on imported goods if companies pass the savings along. For now, it is best to stay patient and watch the data closely.

• How tariffs are paid by importing companies during the customs process, meaning individual shoppers do not pay them directly, making direct consumer refunds highly unlikely – The Washington Post
• This analysis by the Council on Foreign Relations explores the alternative legal pathways the Trump administration might use to bypass the Supreme Court's ruling. It breaks down other trade authorities delegated by Congress, such as Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose temporary tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days to address balance-of-payments deficits. – CFR.org
• How the removal of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs could spell financial relief and resolve supply chain uncertainties for business owners, some of whom had even halted overseas shipments while awaiting the court's decision. – CBS

🧭 Policy & Market Ripples

• Supply Chain Finance Boom: Global SCF market hits $62 billion in 2026, driven by AI and ESG integration—DBS and Standard Chartered lead with innovative platforms. → Global Finance Magazine
• Retail Investor Power Surge: Retail traders hit $5.4 trillion in 2025 activity, outperforming S&P 500 trackers and reshaping market dynamics with ‘buy the dip’ moves. → ABC News
• Gold Losing Safe-Haven Status: Despite U.S.-Iran tensions, gold struggles above $5,000/oz, down 4.9% from January highs—momentum play over hedge? → MarketWatch