Shutdown Over, But Another Fight Looms in 10 Weeks

Good Morning,

– Truly yours, Fred Frost

📉 Yesterday's Market Recap

Markets took a cautious step back yesterday as mixed earnings reports and geopolitical noise kept investors on edge. The Dow slipped 0.3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq dipped 0.5% amid profit-taking after recent highs. Key movers included disappointments in retail and lingering tariff concerns.

• JD.com Beats but Margins Slip: Despite 14.9% revenue growth to $42B, marketing costs spiked, dragging operating margin to -0.4%. → Benzinga


• DLocal Drops on Tariff Worries: Stock fell 13% premarket after Mexico tariff hikes slowed business, despite $282.5M revenue beat. → Stocktwits


• US Antimony Misses Big: Shares slid 4% premarket on a $0.04 per share loss and revenue shortfall at $8.7M vs. $13M expected. → ABC News

📈 Daily Performance Snapshot

🔭 What to Watch Today

Today’s lineup could nudge markets with fresh earnings data and policy ripples. Keep an eye on these developments for potential impacts on tech and consumer staples.

💡 Opportunity Watch

Amid today’s headlines, a few sectors and stocks stand out as potential plays for the savvy investor.

• Oddity Tech Ltd (ODD): Oversold with an RSI of 29.2, down 21% this month, could be a Q4 rebound candidate in consumer staples. → Benzinga
• Grab Holdings (GRAB): Autonomous vehicle testing expansion in Singapore signals growth in innovative transport tech, up 0.35% premarket. → Benzinga

🔥 The Big Bullet

Record U.S. Government Shutdown Ends, But Another May Be on the Horizon

What happened: The record-long U.S. government shutdown has officially ended after 43 days. President Trump signed a new funding bill that temporarily reopens federal agencies. This came just hours after the House of Representatives passed the agreement. Markets reacted positively at first, with world shares mostly moving higher as trading opened across Asia and Europe. But many investors remain cautious. The bill only funds the government through January, meaning another shutdown threat is just 10 weeks away. The long standoff already caused delays in economic reports and raised concerns at the Federal Reserve. While some services resume, trust in government stability remains shaky. The final deal includes no major policy changes.

Why it matters: Government shutdowns can have ripple effects on the economy. Federal workers miss paychecks, agencies pause operations, and market confidence takes a hit. The most recent shutdown held back key economic data, which the Fed uses to guide interest rate decisions. Some investors worry that these repeated fights make the U.S. look less reliable to global partners and credit agencies. The temporary resolution gives markets a short break, but not full relief. This could influence how much risk investors are willing to take in early 2026. It also makes planning harder for businesses tied to government contracts or consumer confidence. All eyes now turn to January's deadline. Investors are bracing for another possible round of fiscal drama in Washington.

What’s next: The next big test comes in January when Congress must pass another funding deal. If lawmakers can’t agree again, a second shutdown could follow quickly. This makes upcoming job reports, inflation data, and Fed meetings even more critical, as they may all be impacted by policy uncertainty. Watch how credit rating agencies respond—further downgrades are possible if the fiscal outlook worsens. Analysts are also tracking government bond markets, which could react to any signs of more dysfunction. Meanwhile, businesses and investors may take a more cautious stance, delaying big decisions until after the next deadline. Agencies like the IRS and FDA face backlogs from the shutdown that could take weeks to clear. January’s talks may signal whether this pattern becomes the new normal—or if both parties can find longer-term stability.

• How the shutdown is causing key economic data, like the GDP report, to be delayed, which hampers policymaker and investor visibility into the economy. – Fox Business
• How the budgeting impasse affects investor sentiment and credit rating risk, including how bond markets and government borrowing could be impacted. – Fidelity Institutional
• How delayed data publication (consumer sentiment, employment, housing, etc.) creates a “data drought” that makes economic forecasting and policy response harder. – EY Parthenon

🧭 Policy & Market Ripples

• Cash App Adds Stablecoin Support: Block’s digital wallet will enable stablecoin transactions in 2025, broadening fintech’s crypto reach with automatic dollar conversions. → Fortune
• Apple’s Digital Passport Feature: New iOS update lets US users store passports in Apple Wallet, expanding digital ID use across select states. → Benzinga
• DBS Bank Leads SME Support in Asia: Awarded Best SME Bank, DBS boosts digital tools and ESG programs for small businesses across the region. → GFMag

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