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Quantum Computing Forecast: $198B Market in the Making
Why Investors Are Watching Quantum Computing
December 17, 2025
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Scientists monitor a prototype quantum computer as the race to unlock next-generation computing power accelerates. Analysts forecast the industry could reach $198 billion within 15 years.
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Good Morning, Markets are pushing to fresh highs as excitement builds around a bold $198 billion forecast for quantum computing. We explain what’s fueling that outlook, how it could reshape tech investing, and why the timeline matters more than the headlines. If you’re long semiconductors or betting on the next wave of AI, this one’s worth your time.House Republicans propose a bill to lower health care premiums by funding Obamacare cost-sharing, sparking internal GOP debate; Coupang’s stock plunges after South Korea’s largest-ever data breach leads to a CEO exit and potential $681M in fines; and a generational rift deepens as Gen Z favors benefit cuts over tax hikes to preserve Social Security. Don't forget to voice your opinion in my polls below. Here are your Morning Bullets. – Truly yours, Fred Frost |
📉 Yesterday's Market Recap
Yesterday, the markets stumbled again, with the Dow and S&P 500 logging their third consecutive day of declines. A November jobs report painted a mixed picture—higher employment but a worrying unemployment spike—while oil prices cratered to their lowest since 2021 on geopolitical hopes. The Nasdaq eked out a small gain, but sentiment remains cautious as investors parse the data.
- S&P 500 Down 0.2%: The S&P 500 slipped 16.25 points to 6,800.26, dragged by energy sector losses amid plunging oil prices. → Seeking Alpha
- Oil Hits Lowest Since 2021: Brent crude settled at $58.92/barrel, down 2.7%, on optimism for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. → CNBC
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🔥 The Big BulletQuantum Computing Could Become a $198 Billion IndustryWhat happened: A new forecast from Jefferies says quantum computing could grow into a $198 billion market within the next 15 years. While the field has mostly lived in theory until now, recent engineering breakthroughs are moving it closer to commercial use. Companies are building systems that can handle complex calculations far beyond what today’s supercomputers can do. However, many technical hurdles still exist, especially around reliability and scaling. Quantum hardware is delicate, expensive, and still hard to operate consistently. Yet investors are showing interest, and big tech firms are continuing to invest. Jefferies’ report is one of the most bullish market projections to date. Its outlook sees steady gains starting by the early 2030s. Why it matters: Quantum computing could eventually disrupt industries like healthcare, logistics, and finance by solving problems regular computers can’t. It may unlock new medicines, faster material discovery, or stronger financial models. For investors, the Jefferies forecast signals that previously overlooked software firms and chipmakers might be positioned to benefit from the shift. The push toward quantum may also pressure traditional tech firms to adapt quickly. Governments are expected to support development as national security and competitiveness come into play. While not all companies will win, those building the tools and software for quantum may gain early ground. Markets could see new funding rounds and acquisitions as a result. Still, investors need to remain cautious due to long timelines and technical uncertainty. What’s next: The coming year may bring more proof-of-concept demos and pilot projects from companies working in quantum. Watch for announcements from public firms like IBM, Google, and Intel, which have been active in this space. Analyst expectations are already shifting as tech companies ramp up R&D. Also, keep an eye on new government funding or policy moves that could drive momentum. If startups show real progress in commercializing quantum tech, investor excitement may grow. But given the complexity, timelines could stretch further. Long-term investors may consider small positions in enabling technologies while monitoring broader developments. Adoption may move slowly at first, but breakthroughs could accelerate growth unexpectedly.
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🧭 Policy & Market Ripples
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📜 This Day in History – December 17December 17 has a lift-off profile — moments when experimentation crossed the line into repeatability. These are the days when proof-of-concept became infrastructure.
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Yesterday, 64% of you chose the right answer to the trivia question: What you give up when choosing one option over another
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