Investors Spooked: Fed Doubts + Trade Fears Collide

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– Truly yours, Fred Frost

📉 Yesterday's Market Recap

Markets took a breather yesterday, with mixed signals as key players like Eli Lilly stumbled on clinical trial news. Indices closed lower amid uncertainty over policy delays and sector-specific headwinds. Here’s what moved the tape.

• Eli Lilly Drops 3.71%: Shares fell to $714.34 after halting a Phase 2b trial for obesity drug bimagrumab due to strategic reasons. → Benzinga


• Costco Misses Q4 Targets: Reported $84.4B in revenue, short of estimates by $1.66B, with EPS missing by $0.07 at $5.73. → Seeking Alpha


• Marvell Tech Faces Downgrades: Analyst price targets cut to an average of $89.47, signaling a 5.51% drop from prior forecasts. → Money

📉 Daily Performance Snapshot

🔭 What to Watch Today

Today’s calendar brings a mix of economic data and corporate moves that could sway markets, especially as inflation and Fed policy remain in the spotlight. Keep your eyes peeled for these developments.

• Personal Income and Spending Data: Fresh figures could signal consumer health, influencing Fed rate cut expectations. → Fortune
• Q3 Earnings Preview for Tech Giants: Early whispers from companies like Accenture may hint at AI investment sustainability. → CNBC
• Trump Tariff Announcements: New details on robotics and medical device tariffs could impact healthcare and tech sectors. → Daily Signal

💡 Opportunity Watch

Amidst the noise of AI fears and policy shifts, a few under the radar plays are catching my eye for savvy investors.

• Cipher Mining (CIFR): Stock surged on AI-crypto hybrid pivot with major colocation revenue potential. → Benzinga
• Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM): Undervalued with strong cash flow prospects as precious metals gain traction. → Seeking Alpha
• Fintech Lending Platforms: SMEs could fuel growth for digital lenders as traditional banks tighten credit. → Finance Monthly

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🔥 The Big Bullet

Stocks fall for a third day as rate cut hopes fade

What happened: U.S. stocks slipped again today, marking the third straight down session for the major indexes. Selling picked up into the close and hit broad sectors, not just tech. Volatility stayed moderate, but buyers were cautious. The move followed a recent reset in rate-cut expectations. Traders are weighing mixed economic signals and policy headlines. Some analysts warned that momentum is weakening. Some wonder if a deeper pullback may be starting. For now, the tape shows lower highs and lower lows across this week.

Why it matters: When hopes for quick rate cuts fade, stock valuations feel pressure because future earnings get discounted more. Defensive areas can hold up better, while rate-sensitive names can lag. Policy noise adds to this. The White House launched a broad import probe that could lead to new tariffs on robotics, machinery, and medical devices, which could widen trade risks. Extra costs can hit margins and raise prices. That can slow growth and keep inflation sticky. If inflation stays firm, the Fed has less room to ease. Meanwhile, some investors think the central bank’s stance is shifting; an analysis found here, argues policy direction is in flux, which can lift day to day swings. In short, rates, trade, and earnings are pulling on the market at the same time.

What’s next: Watch for signs of stress in housing and consumer demand. A top macro analyst called the August new home sales jump “implausible,” raising the odds of revisions that could shift rate and growth views. Policy headlines also matter for sentiment. A group of former Fed chairs and Treasury leaders urged the Supreme Court to protect the Fed’s independence could influence confidence if the Court takes up related questions. Earnings and guidance will steer sector moves as well. Companies that stress cost control and steady cash flow may find support. Rate sensitive areas could bounce if yields ease. But if yields stay high and trade risks rise, dips can extend.

• How tariffs could be applied to robotics, medical devices, and machinery. – Reuters
• How central banking doctrine is shifting, and why markets may need to dial back “easy money” hopes – Financial Times
• How court rulings could restrict the White House’s trade tools. – CBS

🧭 Policy & Market Ripples

• Clean Energy ETF Soars 118%: Invesco WilderHill (PBW) outpaces tech and Nvidia with triple-digit gains since April, despite political criticism. → Benzinga
• Bank of South Carolina Hikes Dividend: Raises quarterly payout by 9.5% to $0.23, yielding 5.93%, payable October 31. → Seeking Alpha
• CTO Realty Secures $150M Loan: New financing retires old debt, bolstering balance sheet for potential growth initiatives. → Stock Titan

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