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Want a New Home? Why Now Might Be Your Shot
The Housing Market Twist No One Saw Coming
September 25, 2025
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New homes rise as builders race to meet demand despite higher mortgage costs.
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Good Morning, Markets are weighing fresh housing data after U.S. new home sales surged over 20% last month, the fastest pace since early 2022. We break down how builder discounts and mortgage buydowns fueled the jump, what it means for homebuilder stocks, and where profit margins could still be under pressure. If you’ve got exposure to real estate or rental REITs, this is the one to read.Meanwhile, lithium stocks spike on political maneuvers and Gen Z is wrestling with hiring biases. All the while, markets are buzzing with opportunity and risk. Test your financial prowess with trivia at the bottom of the Newsletter. Here are your Morning Bullets. – Truly yours, Fred Frost |
📈 Yesterday's Market RecapMarkets edged higher yesterday, buoyed by tech optimism and commodity plays. A handful of key stories shaped the tape, from lithium surges to healthcare dips, signaling mixed currents under the surface.
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📉 Daily Performance Snapshot
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🔭 What to Watch TodayToday’s calendar could nudge markets with fresh data and policy signals worth tracking for your portfolio. |
💡 Opportunity WatchAmid policy noise and tech fervor, a few under-the-radar plays could offer upside for sharp investors.
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🔥 The Big BulletU.S. new home sales jump to the fastest pace since early 2022What happened: New data show that new-home sales in the U.S. rose more than 20% in August, marking the quickest pace since early 2022. The report points to strong demand helped by builder discounts and incentives. Fortune reports that builders cut prices and sweetened deals to move inventory. This helped offset the drag from higher mortgage costs. Sales gains were broad, not limited to one region. Builders also leaned on rate buydowns to keep monthly payments manageable for buyers. The jump surprised many forecasters who expected a slower market. It signals that new construction is filling the gap left by tight supply of existing homes. Why it matters: Housing is a key engine for the economy, so a sales surge can support jobs and spending. For investors, stronger demand can lift homebuilder revenues and margins if incentives fade. It can also support rent growth and occupancy for single-family rentals. One sign of that optimism: an analyst upgrade on Invitation Homes, a large single-family rental REIT. Income investors may also look to mortgage REITs for yield; ARMOUR Residential REIT declared a $0.24 dividend. That said, incentives and rate buydowns can squeeze builder profits if they persist. Supply chains and lot availability still matter for timelines and costs. For policy watchers, housing affects inflation readings that the market tracks closely. What’s next: Watch how stocks react as traders digest the housing beat. Broadly, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq just logged back to back losses, so sentiment is fragile. If builders keep cutting prices, unit sales may stay firm but profits could lag. If mortgage rates ease, incentives may shrink and margins can improve. Keep an eye on short-selling activity as a gauge of pressure; Nasdaq reported a rise in short interest across listed stocks as of mid September. Upcoming housing data and earnings commentary from builders will guide expectations. Rental REIT updates on occupancy and renewal spreads will also be telling. For conservative portfolios, focus on balance sheets, cash flow, and dividend safety while momentum settles. |
🧭 Policy & Market Ripples
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📜 This Day in History – September 25September 25 includes legal design, media education, and invention—quiet pivot points beneath the grander narrative.
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Today's Trivia
- A) Stock prices are always set by government regulators
- B) It is impossible to consistently outperform the market because all available information is already reflected in prices
- C) Investors can always beat the market by analyzing past price patterns
- D) Markets are inefficient and driven only by investor emotions
Yesterday, 82% of you chose the right answer to the trivia question: To promote global economic stability and provide financial assistance to countries in crisis
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