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U.S. and Australia Strike $8.5B Rare Earths Deal to Curb China’s Grip
The U.S. Wants to Mine Less Trouble from China
October 21, 2025
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A rare handshake over rare earths: U.S. and Australia strike a landmark minerals deal to counter China’s global dominance.
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Good Morning, Markets are pressing higher as the U.S. and Australia ink an $8.5B rare earths deal aimed at breaking China’s grip on critical minerals. We unpack the deal’s strategic aims, why it sparked gains in mining stocks, and what it could mean for future supply chains. If you’re exposed to industrials or watching geopolitical shifts, this is the one to read.Investor skepticism rises as analysts short Tesla over extreme valuations, warnings mount about an AI-driven S&P 500 bubble, and corporate DEI job postings plunge 50% amid shifting political and policy priorities. My latest poll and trivia are below. Here are your Morning Bullets. – Truly yours, Fred Frost |
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🔥 The Big BulletU.S. and Australia Sign $8.5 Billion Rare Earths DealWhat happened: Yesterday, President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a major $8.5 billion deal focused on rare earth minerals. The goal is to lessen reliance on China for critical materials used in electronics, defense systems, and clean energy. The agreement includes plans for joint investment and development of rare earth resources between the two countries. Both governments emphasized national security and economic independence in their remarks. This announcement follows long-standing concerns over China’s dominance in the rare earth supply chain. Just hours later, shares of U.S.-listed rare earth companies jumped on the news. The deal marks one of the largest cross-national resource partnerships in recent years. It also signals stronger cooperation between two of China’s biggest competitors. Why it matters: Rare earths are essential to producing everything from smartphones to fighter jets. China currently supplies about 70% of global demand, which poses a risk if trade tensions rise. This new U.S.-Australia deal aims to build an alternative supply chain and stabilize access. For investors, this could bring new opportunities in mining and materials companies outside of China. The move by Cleveland-Cliffs to grow its rare earths operations shows how firms are preparing for demand shifts. Increased government support might also reduce some risks in the sector. However, building out mines and refining facilities takes time. Still, markets seem optimistic about long-term gains. What’s next: Keep an eye on how quickly the U.S. and Australia start joint projects under the deal. Key contracts and permits will likely come first. Watch for signs of new supply chains forming in North America and Oceania. Also, track whether China responds with export limits or new pricing strategies. Future corporate earnings from mining companies could show how the market is adjusting. Analysts will also look for policy follow-ups, such as tax breaks or faster approvals. Lastly, expect more countries to announce similar partnerships as rare earths become a strategic focus.
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Reader Feedback
Yesterday, I asked you: Who do you think is winning the U.S./China trade fight right now? The majority of you at 38% said "China, its economy is bouncing back stronger."
Bethany from Wisconsin replied: "China has been manufacturing things for the U.S. for decades now. It'd be foolish to think we're the only country who benefits from them.”
Here's what I'm asking you today:
As always if your opinion is not here, or you want to throw your two cents at me, reply to the E-mail, and let me know your exact thoughts.
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📜 This Day in History – October 21October 21 was a showcase of turning points—from light to letters to legislation—each redefining reach and reason in its own era.
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