Inflation ticks up amid trade tensions, while bank earnings offer mixed signals—let's decode what it means for your portfolio.

Good morning, folks. Another day where Washington's tariff tango is dancing all over your 401(k), with inflation reports confirming what we skeptics knew: government meddling rarely comes cheap. But amid the noise, there are data points worth your attention, from bank earnings beats to crypto rebounds. Remember, the free market finds a way, even when politicians try to 'fix' it.

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📉 Yesterday's Market Recap

Markets closed modestly higher but couldn't shake off tariff jitters, with the Dow up a scant 0.2% as investors digested Trump's latest threats and mixed bank results. Inflation data showed a hotter-than-expected June, adding fuel to rate cut doubts.

• Goldman Sachs Beats Expectations: Traders drove $840M more revenue than forecast in Q2, pushing shares up. → CNBC
• Bank of America Misses on Net Interest Income: Mixed Q2 results as rising rates squeezed margins. → CNBC
• ASML Shares Tumble 6.5%: Chip giant warns on 2026 growth amid tariff uncertainty. → Investors.com
• Crypto Bounces on Stablecoin Hopes: Optimism for House legislation lifts Bitcoin and peers. → ABC

📉 Volatility Surges Amid Political Turmoil

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🔭 What to Watch Today

With inflation data still fresh and tariffs looming, today's earnings and policy moves could tip the scales on rate expectations—keep an eye on these for clues to market direction.

🔥 The Big Bullet

What happened: Trump's tariff threats escalated, with proposals over 10% on smaller countries and potential hits on pharmaceuticals by month-end. This comes as June CPI rose to 2.7% annually, slightly above expectations, while core CPI cooled to 2.9%. Markets felt the pinch, with ASML warning of stalled 2026 growth and broader sentiment turning bullish yet cautious. Senate Republicans advanced a $9B spending cuts package, exempting a key AIDS program after backlash.
→ Fox Business

Why it matters: These tariffs are already inflating costs for consumers and businesses, risking jobs in sectors like agriculture and autos, while complicating the Fed's path to rate cuts. Investors should note the irony: government intervention meant to protect is instead inflating bubbles and eroding free-market efficiency.

What’s next: Watch for September rate cut odds to shift further, with potential Fed scrutiny over renovation costs as a wildcard. More tariff details could emerge, pressuring global supply chains.

• Trump cancels Bush Era HIV program Fortune
• Senate set to debate cuts to NPR today NPR
• Nvidia not quite up to par in China  Fortune Asia

💡 Opportunity Watch

Tariff turbulence aside, pockets of resilience emerge in tech and crypto, where policy shifts could unlock undervalued plays for the self-reliant investor.

• Nvidia (NVDA) and China AI: Resumed chip exports to China amid praise for local models signal growth tailwinds. → CNBC Stocks
• Crypto Stablecoin Legislation: Potential House passage could stabilize assets like Bitcoin amid volatility. → Investors.com
• Blackstone Rental Market Re-entry: Betting on housing amid delistings and inventory buildup for steady yields. → Daily Signal

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🧭 Policy & Market Ripples

• Mortgage Demand Plunges 10%: Rising rates and economic worries hit homebuyers hard. → AInvest
• Fed Renovation Costs Under Fire: Powell's $2.5B project draws scrutiny, potential leverage for Trump allies. → Fox Business
• Housing Sellers Delist in Droves: 47% surge as inventory rises, shifting power to buyers. → Fortune
• Central Banks Hoard Gold: Surging prices drive purchases from local mines. → CNBC

📜 This Day in History – July 16