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Powell Pulls the Trigger: What it Means for You
Rate cuts and tech in geopolitical crossfire.
September 18, 2025
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The Fed cuts rates, markets brace for what’s next.
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Good Morning, All eyes are on the Fed after a tense meeting yesterday that delivered the first rate cut of 2025. A split inside the FOMC is raising questions about how far and how fast policymakers will ease. Traders are bracing for sharp moves in two-year yields, the dollar, and rate-sensitive sectors as the outlook shifts.Meanwhile, Cracker Barrel’s logo fiasco proves nostalgia isn’t just sentiment; it’s a $143 million market cap lesson. And with tech titans like Nvidia caught in geopolitical crossfire, there’s plenty to chew on today. Also, you folks have loved the harder trivia questions, so prepare yourself for another below. Here are your Morning Bullets. – Truly yours, Fred Frost |
📉 Yesterday's Market RecapMarkets took a cautious step back yesterday as investors digested mixed signals ahead of the Fed's rate cut announcement. Equities dipped slightly, with tech stocks under pressure from global uncertainties, while bonds edged up in anticipation of easing policy.
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📉 Daily Performance Snapshot
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🔭 What to Watch TodayToday’s calendar offers key events that could ripple through markets, from central bank moves to corporate developments. Keep your eyes peeled for these potential game-changers. |
💡 Opportunity WatchAmid policy shifts and corporate pivots, a few opportunities stand out for sharp-eyed investors. Here’s where to look.
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🔥 The Big BulletFed cuts rates by 25 bps and signals more easing aheadWhat happened: The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point, bringing the target range down and indicating the possibility of additional cuts this year. Policymakers also released updated projections that point to two more reductions in 2025 if conditions warrant. Chair Jerome Powell said the decision reflects cooling in the labor market and mixed growth signals. Markets had largely anticipated the move going into the announcement. Stocks swung between gains and losses as traders digested the new policy path. The move marks the first rate cut of 2025 after a long pause. Officials stressed that future steps would remain data-dependent. Why it matters: Rate cuts do not flow evenly through the economy, and borrowers may not see quick relief. Mortgage and auto loan rates often move with longer-term yields and credit spreads, not only with the Fed’s policy rate. Analysts caution that today’s small cut is unlikely to make a noticeable difference for homebuyers or car shoppers in the near term. Markets are also parsing the Fed’s tone on growth and inflation. Some see the setup as supportive for bonds and mixed for equities in the short run. The Fed’s outlook and messaging can matter as much as the move itself. Investors will watch whether softer data keeps building or stabilizes. A measured path lowers recession odds but still leaves risk if inflation or growth surprises. For read-through on market positioning, see how quant and wealth leaders interpret the Fed’s stance. What’s next: The policy path depends on upcoming jobs, inflation, and growth reports. Powell emphasized the balance of risks and said there is “no risk-free path” in navigating between inflation and slowdown. Fresh projections imply the door is open to more easing if data softens. Markets will recalibrate expectations as each data point lands. Political noise could also color sentiment, but the Fed says decisions will remain data-driven. Housing, consumer spending, and corporate investment are key swing factors. Watch how longer-term yields react, as that will shape mortgage and credit costs. For timing and planning around upcoming decisions, see Money’s guide to the next Fed meeting and potential rate moves. |
🧭 Policy & Market Ripples
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📜 This Day in History – September 18September 18 has quietly hosted milestones of housing, broadcasting, and nation‑building—structures of society, not flashpoints.
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Today's Trivia
Yesterday, 77% of you chose the right answer to the trivia question: Central bank actions to control the money supply and interest rates
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