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Image via Axios
ABUNDANCE DEMS WANT TO DEREGULATE — AND THEY’RE AIMING STRAIGHT AT 2028
A new nonprofit inside the center-left “Abundance” orbit is quietly assembling a 2028 policy agenda designed to go after the regulatory choke points they think have made the party look anti-growth. Think: permitting, housing, energy buildout, infrastructure timelines — the stuff that turns “we’ll invest” into “see you in 10 years.”
This is the first tell in a while that a chunk of Democrats is admitting the obvious: voters don’t experience legislation, they experience delivery. If your coalition can’t build housing, power, ports, or transmission faster than a TikTok cycle, you don’t get credit — you get inflation and backlash.
✍ My Take: Markets should treat this as a real medium-term tailwind if it becomes more than a white paper. Faster permitting + fewer procedural veto points is bullish for industrials, construction materials, grid capex, and any “picks-and-shovels” infrastructure complex. The trade is simple: less process, more projects — and lower structural inflation pressure over time.
📎 Axios
Image via Washington Examiner
PCE POPS TO 3.5% — IRAN WAR FALLOUT JUST TOOK CUTS OFF THE TABLE
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge jumped to 3.5% year-over-year in March, a sharp re-acceleration tied to war-driven cost pressures. The key point isn’t the number — it’s the direction: inflation isn’t cooling into the Fed’s target glidepath, it’s re-bidding on geopolitics.
Energy and shipping don’t have to be “permanent” to break the market’s rate-cut narrative. All it takes is a couple months of ugly prints and a consumer that won’t roll over. That’s how you go from “soft landing” to “sticky inflation” fast.
✍ My Take: If you’re still positioned like rate cuts are inevitable, you’re late. This keeps the front end pinned and pushes term premium higher — bad for long-duration tech, good for cash-flow-heavy value and energy. Gold stays bid, and crypto trades like a high-beta liquidity proxy: it won’t like a hawkish repricing if real yields pop again.
Image via RealClearMarkets
AI’S “DOT-COM MOMENT” WARNING — RELIABILITY IS THE NEW VALUATION MULTIPLE
The argument: AI’s potential is real, but reliability gaps are widening — and the market is pricing outcomes as if accuracy, compliance, and accountability are solved. They’re not. The next phase isn’t “can it generate,” it’s “can it be trusted in production without lawsuits, hallucinations, or regulatory blowback.”
That’s the part retail misses every cycle. In 1999 it was eyeballs; in 2007 it was AAA ratings; in 2021 it was “users” and zero rates. When the story breaks, it breaks where expectations are laziest: enterprise deployment, liability, and unit economics.
✍ My Take: The AI trade is splitting into two buckets: infrastructure winners with real demand (power, data centers, semis, networking) and “AI-washed” software that’s about to learn what churn looks like. If reliability becomes the gating factor, the premium shifts from hype to proof — and multiples compress hard where pricing assumes perfection.
GAP CLEANS UP MARGINS — BUT SLOW GROWTH MEANS NO HERO MULTIPLE
Gap is showing margin improvement, but the backdrop is still slow growth and a consumer that’s picky, promotional, and increasingly split by income tier. Operational fixes help — but retail isn’t rewarded for “less bad” when demand is drifting and pricing power is scarce.
In this tape, you don’t just need better execution — you need a reason revenues re-accelerate without discounting. Margin gains built on cost cuts are finite; margin gains built on pricing power are rare.
✍ My Take: I don’t chase retailers on margin headlines when top-line momentum is questionable and macro is re-inflating. If inflation stays sticky and rates stay higher, apparel gets squeezed between input costs and a consumer trading down. Treat this as a trading stock, not a “new era” compounder.
SABA WINS UK TECH TRUST FIGHT — DISCOUNT CLOSURE IS THE ONLY RELIGION
Boaz Weinstein’s Saba has seized control of the Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust after a bruising fight that included a SpaceX-related feud. This is the closed-end fund playbook: attack persistent discounts to NAV, force governance change, push buybacks/tenders, and make the math work.
UK-listed tech and venture-style trusts have been sitting ducks — illiquid assets, volatile marks, and public-market shareholders stuck watching discounts widen. Activists don’t need the underlying portfolio to moon; they just need the discount to shrink.
✍ My Take: This is bullish for “discount-to-NAV” activists and a warning shot to every sleepy investment trust board. The fastest return in risk-off venture isn’t a unicorn IPO — it’s governance plus capital actions. If you own these vehicles, stop pretending patience is a strategy: discount control is the product.
📎 CNBC
Trade what they do, not what they say. Fred Frost out.
— Fred Frost
