Today’s Sponsor
SpaceX could file its confidential IPO prospectus with the SEC THIS WEEK. The company aims to seek a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation and become the largest stock market debut in history. The IPO could raise up to $80 billion, with individual investors getting access to 30% of shares via E*trade, Robinhood and SoFi.
This puts SpaceX on track for a late June listing after the typical 3-month SEC review. The pitch focuses on three explosive businesses: space launch, Starlink, and orbital data centers. This is moving forward on schedule for a June or July listing.
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Image via ZeroHedge
Psychedelic Mania Gets a White House Tailwind
Psychedelic drug stocks ripped higher after a Trump order signaled friendlier federal posture toward research and potential approvals. RBC says the commercialization path could accelerate as Washington shifts from "taboo" to "tool," especially around PTSD and veteran care.
✍ My Take: This is a risk-on trade, not a fundamentals trade—expect violent swings. If you play it, size it like an option: small, diversified, and assume Washington can giveth and taketh away.
Image via The Hill
Trump vs. Energy Sec: The $3 Gas Promise Is Back
Trump blasted his energy secretary as "totally wrong" for suggesting gas won’t drop below $3 until next year. The message: the administration wants faster relief at the pump—and is publicly pressuring the energy narrative.
✍ My Take: Political pressure usually means policy meddling—think SPR chatter, refinery rhetoric, and anti-"price gouging" noise. I’d stay long quality integrated producers and avoid overpaying for consumer "gas relief" stories.
📎 The Hill
Hormuz Heat: Iran’s Claim Raises Tanker-Risk Premium
U.S. UN Ambassador Mike Waltz called Iran’s claim of "ownership" over the Strait of Hormuz a violation of international law. Markets treat Hormuz talk as optionality: most days it’s noise—until it isn’t, and crude gaps higher.
✍ My Take: Keep some energy exposure as geopolitical insurance; it’s cheaper than pretending the world is stable. If shipping risk rises, expect oil up, airlines down, and defense names bid.
$166B Refund Wave: Corporate Cash Gets a Surprise Injection
The Trump administration says it will begin refunding $166B to businesses following a Supreme Court decision. That’s a direct liquidity event for corporate America—part stimulus, part balance-sheet repair—without Congress writing a new bill.
✍ My Take: This is bullish for buybacks, capex, and credit quality—especially for firms that actually get checks soon. Watch beneficiaries: industrials, healthcare services, and any sector that’s been quietly sitting on tax/fee disputes.
American Airlines Shoots Down United Megamerger Talk
American slid premarket after dismissing chatter of a potential United tie-up, citing antitrust risk and competitive harm. Translation: management isn’t betting on regulators loosening—so the "consolidation premium" deflates.
✍ My Take: Airlines are still a margin-and-fuel story, not a M&A story. If crude risk is rising, avoid the weak balance sheets and stick to operators with pricing power and cleaner debt ladders.
📎 CNBC
Rare Earth Land Grab: USA Rare Earth Buys Brazil’s Serra Verde for $2.8B
USA Rare Earth agreed to buy Brazil’s Serra Verde in a $2.8B deal, a big swing at non-China supply. The move underscores the scramble for secure critical minerals as industrial policy and defense procurement converge.
✍ My Take: This is strategic, but execution risk is the whole trade—mines and processing plants don’t scale on press releases. I like the theme (critical minerals), but I’d favor diversified miners and "picks-and-shovels" processing over single-asset hero bets.
Stay hedged, stay liquid, and don’t confuse a headline pop with a durable trend.
— The Morning Bullets Desk
