Tax season is quietly reshaping market flows right now. Refunds hit accounts, portfolios get rebalanced, and positions shift to cover obligations — creating liquidity changes that can make moves look meaningful when they're really just seasonal noise.
This confusion is especially dangerous for small-cap activity. Our new 2026 Market Flow Briefing reveals how tax-season liquidity affects market action, why moves seem disconnected from fundamentals, and one critical setup appearing under these exact conditions.
Get the Free Briefing*We encourage readers to perform their own research and due diligence on any information we provide. By clicking the link you will automatically be subscribed to the Stock Wire News Newsletter.
Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Oil Tanks as Iran Peace Plan Sparks Market Rally
Oil prices plunged while US stock futures surged Tuesday night after reports emerged that Washington has sent a comprehensive peace proposal to Tehran. The Dow jumped 400 points in pre-market trading as Brent crude fell below $85 per barrel.
Energy stocks led the decline in after-hours trading, while defense contractors gave up earlier gains. The proposed deal reportedly includes sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear program restrictions and regional de-escalation commitments.
**
✍ My Take: ** Don't get too comfortable with this peace dividend just yet. Iran has a long history of negotiating in bad faith, and any deal still needs Congressional approval. Keep some energy exposure — geopolitical tensions don't disappear overnight, and oil remains structurally underinvested.
Congress Eyes Prediction Market Ban for Politicians
A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced legislation Tuesday that would prohibit members of Congress and the President from trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and PredictIt. The bill comes amid growing scrutiny of potential insider trading by elected officials.
The proposed ban would extend existing stock trading restrictions to political betting markets, where lawmakers could theoretically profit from advance knowledge of policy decisions or classified information.
**
✍ My Take: ** This is virtue signaling at its finest — politicians trying to look ethical while missing the real problem. Focus on the companies that actually move markets based on congressional actions, not penny-ante political betting. Your portfolio cares more about defense contractors and healthcare stocks than who's betting on election outcomes.
📎 Politico
Treasury Auction Bombs as Iran War Fears Grip Bond Market
Tuesday's 7-year Treasury auction posted the worst results in over a year, with weak demand and elevated yields signaling deep investor anxiety about escalating Middle East tensions. The bid-to-cover ratio fell to just 2.1, well below the recent average of 2.5.
Foreign buyers notably stepped back from the auction, while domestic banks picked up the slack at higher yields. The poor reception suggests bond markets remain skeptical about any near-term resolution to regional conflicts.
**
✍ My Take: ** Bond vigilantes are back, and they're not buying the peace talk hype. This failed auction screams that smart money expects prolonged conflict and higher defense spending. Stick with shorter-duration Treasuries and consider TIPS — inflation hedge meets flight-to-quality in one package.
Markets hate uncertainty, but they hate surprises even more. Stay nimble. —MB
— The Morning Bullets Desk
