Markets Soar, Fed Wobbles, GM Bleeds

GM takes a $1.1 billion hit from import taxes, proving once again that government meddling in markets comes with a hefty bill for businesses and, eventually, you.

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GM's $1.1B tariff hit, Tesla's seven-quarter slide, and Cuban's AI leverage play—plus today's market watch.

Markets Soar, Fed Wobbles, GM Bleeds

GM takes a $1.1 billion hit from import taxes, proving once again that government meddling in markets comes with a hefty bill for businesses and, eventually, you. July 23, 2025
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A weathered American flag draped over a stack of shipping containers at a busy port, with tariff stamps and red ink marks symbolizing economic pressure, evoking a sense of industrial strain and patriotic skepticism.
Tariffs may protect, but they sure don't come cheap—GM's latest earnings remind us who's really paying.

Good morning, folks. Another day where Washington's tariff tango dances right into corporate earnings, with GM feeling the pinch and Tesla struggling to keep its California crown. It's a reminder that free markets work best without the heavy hand of policy, but here we are. As always, let's cut through the noise with facts and a dash of reality check. And here are your Morning Bullets.

– Truly yours, Fred Frost


📉 Yesterday's Market Recap

Markets closed lower yesterday amid tariff woes and mixed earnings, with the Dow dipping 0.8% as auto giants like GM absorbed import tax hits. Broader indices followed suit, reflecting investor caution over ongoing trade frictions and softening oil outlooks.


    • GM Profits Slump 35% on $1.1B Tariff Impact: General Motors reported Q2 net income down to $1.8B from $2.9B last year, largely due to tariffs, though it beat expectations and plans U.S. manufacturing shifts. → Fox Business

    • Tesla Registrations Drop 18.3% in California: Tesla saw a seven-quarter decline in its largest U.S. market, with rivals like Chevrolet surging 80.5% in ZEV sales amid shifting preferences to hybrids. → Benzinga

    • Oil Services Soften, Halliburton Revenues Fall 6%: Halliburton and SLB cited weaker oil prices and producer spending cuts, with North American revenues expected to drop over 10% for 2025. → WSJ

    • Capital One EPS Surges 75% Post-Discover Deal: Adjusted EPS hit $5.48, beating estimates despite a GAAP loss from acquisition costs, with synergies targeted at $2.5B. → CNBC


    📈 Daily Performance Snapshot

    Index/AssetClosing ValueChange
    S&P 5006,309.62+0.06%
    Nasdaq20,892.69-0.39%
    Dow Jones44,502.44+0.4%
    Gold$3433.20-0.3%
    Crude Oil$66.36+0.23%
    Bitcoin$118,664+0.99%
    10-yr Treasury Yield4.336%-0.82%

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    🔭 What to Watch Today

    Keep an eye on earnings reports and global trade developments today, as they could signal shifts in sector strength amid tariff pressures and market volatility—remember, these moves often reveal where smart money is hedging against policy risks.

    • Tesla Q2 Earnings (After Market Close): Investors await details on sales declines and Musk's strategies amid EV market shifts and expiring tax credits. → CNN
    • Syngene International Q1 Results (July 24): Pharma services firm eyes breakout above ₹700, with revenue up 11% last quarter despite high valuations. → Stocktwits
    • India-UK FTA Signing Anticipation: Tata Motors leads gains ahead of potential trade deal, while FII outflows pressure Nifty. → Economic Times

    💡 Opportunity Watch

    In a world where tariffs disrupt supply chains, look for resilient plays in shipping and tech—firms with strong balance sheets and domestic focus could turn policy headwinds into tailwinds for the savvy investor.

    • Danaos Corporation (DAC): With a modern fleet and long-term charters, this shipping firm offers 3.8% yield and buybacks amid market volatility. → Seeking Alpha
    • AI Leverage for Entrepreneurs: Mark Cuban's bet on AI as baseline skill points to tools like ZenBusiness for solo founders scaling without big payrolls. → Yahoo!
    • Eventual's Premium Lock: Climate fintech's AI predicts insurance hikes, offering hedging opportunities in volatile real estate markets. → Fortune

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    🔥 The Big Bullet

    Markets Vs. Mr. Powell

    What happened: Over the weekend, President Trump publicly attacked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at a July 22 press conference, calling him a “numbskull” and predicting Powell would be out of office in eight months—despite Powell’s stated intent to serve his full term. Trump reiterated his view that interest rates should be “three points lower,” and ordered a review of Fed facility renovations, signaling an escalation in White House scrutiny of the central bank’s operations. -Reuters


    Why it matters: Central‑bank independence is a cornerstone of U.S. monetary credibility. When the Fed is perceived as vulnerable to political pressure, two key risks emerge:

    • Volatility in Rates & Markets – Bond markets reacted immediately: 10-year Treasury yields jumped roughly 12 basis points, reflecting traders’ fear that rate decisions could become unpredictable under political influence. -Reuters

    • Erosion of Forward Guidance – If investors doubt that policy will remain “data-driven,” the Fed loses its ability to anchor inflation expectations, potentially raising long-term borrowing costs and undermining the very rate cuts Trump seeks. -APNews

    What’s next:

    • Fed Comments & Minutes: Look for any pushback or reaffirmation of independence in upcoming Fed minutes and speeches—especially from Vice Chair Lael Brainard or Governor Michelle Bowman.
    • Congressional Response: A growing number of GOP senators have publicly defended the Fed’s operational autonomy; watch for any resolutions or hearings that could reinforce—or challenge—the central bank’s firewalls.
    • Economic Data: Friday’s July PCE and next week’s jobs report will test whether the Fed can remain “on hold” if inflation or labor data surprise; any sudden shift in data‑dependence could signal a policy pivot under political duress.

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    🧭 Policy & Market Ripples

    • Equinor Reaffirms Outlook Despite Revenue Dip: Q2 revenue fell 1.6% to $25.14B but beat estimates; $0.37 dividend and $1.265B buyback tranche announced. → Seeking Alpha
    • Chick-fil-A Expands to Brooklyn: New location opens with promotions, creating 75 jobs amid broader U.S. quick-service growth. → Fox Business
    • Sarepta Halts Elevidys Shipments: FDA-requested pause after patient deaths; shares slide as three-to-six-month delay looms. → ABC News
    • Tesla Diner Opens in Hollywood: 24/7 venue with Superchargers and screens; Musk dubs it a top LA spot ahead of earnings. → Fox Business

    The best way to teach your kids about taxes is by eating 30% of their ice cream.
    — Bill Murray
    That's your snapshot—stay vigilant, question the interventions, and invest with eyes wide open.

    Stay sharp,
    Fredrick Frost
    Editor, MorningBullets

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