Not a fan of Fred? Click here for a one-click opt-out experience.
One-Click Unsubscribe here.
 

30% Tariff Gambit Raises Stakes for U.S. Markets and Allies

Plus: As tech races ahead, unchecked AI in healthcare poses risks that echo the regulatory overreaches of the past. July 15, 2025
Morning Bullets is the fastest way to catch up on the market and political news that matter most to your money. Quick takes, sharp insight, and curated opportunitiesβ€”served fresh every weekday morning.

A shadowy figure in a hospital corridor using a personal AI device, with Bitcoin charts glowing in the background, evoking tension and opportunity
"Trade War Reloaded: 30% Tariffs Land Aug. 1"

Good morning from Greenwich, where I’m nursing my coffee and thinking about how economic power plays often land harder than common sense policy. Growing up in Montana, I watched neighbors lose their wheat profits overnight when distant trade rules shiftedβ€”just like this new 30% tariff hammer Trump’s dropping on the EU and Mexico. It’s a blunt reminder that global markets don’t run on fairnessβ€”they run on leverage. Today, we’ll unpack that, plus Bitcoin’s Wall Street-fueled surge and more.

Don't forget, your feedback about our new look is much appriciated! (Survey Below). And here are your Morning Bullets.

– Truly yours, Fred Frost

Sponsored Content

3 Stocks Ready to Explode!

Beamr Imaging surged 3,700% this year, turning $5,000 into over $185,000!
Our next free report reveals 3 new tiny stocks set for explosive growth.

Send My Free Report Now

By clicking the link above, you agree to periodic updates from our sponsor.


πŸ“ˆ Yesterday's Market Recap

Markets closed higher yesterday, buoyed by optimism around the GOP's tax bill and its permanent R&D deductions sparking tech hiring. Bitcoin continued its rally, shrugging off minor dips, while tariff talks on Mexican tomatoes added some volatility to ag stocks. Reminds me of the dot-com boom – innovation drives gains, but policy hiccups can sting.


  • GOP Tax Bill Boosts Tech Hiring: Senator Lankford predicts a surge in tech jobs due to reinstated R&D deductions, a $141B tax cut over 10 years. β†’ Washington Examiner
  • Bitcoin Surges on Wall Street Inflows: Crypto hits over $122K with $50B in ETF inflows this year, reducing volatility. β†’ Fortune
  • Tomato Tariff Tensions Rise: 21% tariff on Mexican imports set to start, dividing U.S. growers on potential price hikes. β†’ Fox Business
  • Nvidia CEO Downplays AI Job Losses: Jensen Huang says AI won't kill jobs if innovation continues, countering pessimistic forecasts. β†’ Fortune

πŸ“ˆ Daily Performance Snapshot

Index/Asset Pre‑Market Value Ξ” from Close
S&P 500 Futures 6,336.00 +0.40%
Nasdaq Futures 23,176.50 +0.61%
Dow Futures 44,679.00 βˆ’0.03%
Gold Futures 3,366.40 +0.22%
Crude Oil (WTI) Futures 68.24 βˆ’0.71%
Bitcoin 116,436 βˆ’2.92%
10‑yr Treasury Yield 4.429% βˆ’0.13β€―pp

Sponsored Content

Trump Phones Are Loud. Mode Is Profitable.

This mobile play could shock investors.

Trump Mobile is flashyβ€”gold accents, flag decals, and a $499 price tag. But is it scalable?

Meanwhile, Mode quietly built a global user base of 45 million+, with explosive revenue growth and 50,000+ investors already in.

Trump sells symbolism. Mode sells revenue from screen time. With a Nasdaq ticker reserved and shares open to accredited investors, Mode’s the mobile play to watch.

Get the Details

By clicking the link above, you agree to receive periodic updates from our sponsor.


πŸ”­ What to Watch Today

Key data drops, tariffs and tech headlines could jolt today’s tape. Here’s what traders are tracking.

  • June CPI (8:30 AM ET): Core inflation is expected to tick up to ~3.0%, keeping Fed-rate cut hopes in check. β†’ WSJ
  • Big-Bank Earnings (Pre-market): JPMorgan, Citigroup & Wells Fargo report Q2 resultsβ€”margin trends and credit quality in focus. β†’ Reuters
  • 17% Tariff on Mexican Tomatoes: U.S. withdrawal from the 2019 accord reinstates duties, likely raising produce prices 6-10%. β†’ Reuters
  • Nvidia Cleared to Resume AI-Chip Exports: Shares jump ~4% after U.S. signal to green-light H20 GPU sales to China, lifting the chip complex. β†’ Reuters
  • China Q2 GDP Beats (5.2% YoY): Better-than-forecast growth tempers global slowdown fears but data under the hood remains mixed. β†’ Reuters

    • πŸ”₯ The Big Bullet

    What happened: President Trump fired off a fresh trade broadside, unveiling 30% tariffs on all goods from the European Union and Mexico starting Aug. 1, 2025. In two Truth Social letters he cited β€œchronic trade deficits” with Europe and Mexico’s β€œfentanyl failures,” vowing any retaliation β€œwill be met with higher levies.”
    β†’ NBC Washington, Investopedia


    Why it matters:

    • Markets on a knife-edge. Analysts warn a new β€œtariff doom-loop” could snap the S&P 500’s summer rally if Europe and Mexico hit back, just as global equities flirt with record highs.
    • Inflation flare-up risk. A 30% blanket duty would lift import-price indexes within weeks; economists at Moody’s estimate it could tack 0.4 pp onto headline CPI by Q4 β€” a dΓ©jΓ -vu of the 2018 steel-tariff shock.
    • Sector shake-out. U.S. steel and aluminum mills cheer, but auto-makers, medical-device firms and craft-beer brewers (who source EU glass/aluminum) face margin pinches, echoing the cross-fire effects of Trump’s first-term tariff cycle.

     

    What’s next: Expect frantic shuttle diplomacy before Aug. 1. Brussels hints at swift WTO action and β€œsmart” counter-tariffs on flagship U.S. brands; Mexico eyes stepped-up fentanyl policing to win exemptions. Watch the July CPI print, Q2 earnings calls (guidance cuts?), and positioning in safe-havens like gold and cybersecurity stocks as traders hedge supply-chain shocks.

    πŸ’‘ Opportunity Watch

    Amid policy shifts, here are spots where smart investors can capitalize. Tech hiring booms and crypto inflows offer solid plays.

    • Tech Sector Hiring Surge (e.g., Professional Services): GOP bill's R&D deductions could add jobs, boosting stocks in tech and scientific services. β†’ Washington Examiner
    • Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., BlackRock’s iShares): Record inflows signal institutional buy-in, with lower volatility making it a hedge against dollar decline. β†’ Fortune
    • Cybersecurity in Healthcare: Shadow AI risks may drive demand for data protection firms as regulations tighten. β†’ Washington Examiner

    Sponsored Content

    Free One-Hour Trading Guide

    Unlock Dave Aquino’s 60-minute strategy that helps traders pull daily profits. Learn the exact 9:30–10:45 AM window and start aiming for retirement dreams todayβ€”free for a limited time.

    Get Free Guide

    By clicking the link above, you agree to periodic updates from our sponsor.


    🧭 Policy & Market Ripples

    • Mass Deportations' Economic Hit: AEI predicts negative net migration shrinking GDP by 0.3-0.4%, impacting labor and spending. β†’ Fortune
    • Resurgence of Left-Wing Terrorism: 700% rise in attacks on ICE, echoing historical waves and potentially unsettling security stocks. β†’ Washington Examiner
    • JPMorgan's Bullish U.S. Outlook: Investment boss dismisses 'sell America' fears, citing institutional strength amid debt concerns. β†’ Fortune
    • Trump Legal Wins Muddled: SCOTUS victories on injunctions, but lower courts block policies like birthright citizenship. β†’ Washington Examiner

    πŸ“œ This Day in History – July 15

    Quick Feedback Poll

    What do you think of the new and updated changes to the morning bullets layout?

    Login or Subscribe to participate


    β€œWhether socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” β€” Warren Buffett

    That's your briefing for today – stay vigilant, invest wisely, and remember, personal responsibility beats government handouts every time. Tight lines if you're fishing this summer.
    Fredrick Frost
    Editor, MorningBullets

    Reply

    or to participate

    More From Capital

    No posts found