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30% Tariff Gambit Raises Stakes for U.S. Markets and Allies

Plus: As tech races ahead, unchecked AI in healthcare poses risks that echo the regulatory overreaches of the past.

July 15, 2025

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30% Tariff Gambit Raises Stakes for U.S. Markets and Allies

Plus: As tech races ahead, unchecked AI in healthcare poses risks that echo the regulatory overreaches of the past. July 15, 2025
Morning Bullets is the fastest way to catch up on the market and political news that matter most to your money. Quick takes, sharp insight, and curated opportunities—served fresh every weekday morning.

A shadowy figure in a hospital corridor using a personal AI device, with Bitcoin charts glowing in the background, evoking tension and opportunity
"Trade War Reloaded: 30% Tariffs Land Aug. 1"

Good morning from Greenwich, where I’m nursing my coffee and thinking about how economic power plays often land harder than common sense policy. Growing up in Montana, I watched neighbors lose their wheat profits overnight when distant trade rules shifted—just like this new 30% tariff hammer Trump’s dropping on the EU and Mexico. It’s a blunt reminder that global markets don’t run on fairness—they run on leverage. Today, we’ll unpack that, plus Bitcoin’s Wall Street-fueled surge and more.

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– Truly yours, Fred Frost


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📈 Yesterday's Market Recap

Markets closed higher yesterday, buoyed by optimism around the GOP's tax bill and its permanent R&D deductions sparking tech hiring. Bitcoin continued its rally, shrugging off minor dips, while tariff talks on Mexican tomatoes added some volatility to ag stocks. Reminds me of the dot-com boom – innovation drives gains, but policy hiccups can sting.


  • GOP Tax Bill Boosts Tech Hiring: Senator Lankford predicts a surge in tech jobs due to reinstated R&D deductions, a $141B tax cut over 10 years. → Washington Examiner
  • Bitcoin Surges on Wall Street Inflows: Crypto hits over $122K with $50B in ETF inflows this year, reducing volatility. → Fortune
  • Tomato Tariff Tensions Rise: 21% tariff on Mexican imports set to start, dividing U.S. growers on potential price hikes. → Fox Business
  • Nvidia CEO Downplays AI Job Losses: Jensen Huang says AI won't kill jobs if innovation continues, countering pessimistic forecasts. → Fortune

📈 Daily Performance Snapshot

Index/AssetPre‑Market ValueΔ from Close
S&P 500 Futures6,336.00+0.40%
Nasdaq Futures23,176.50+0.61%
Dow Futures44,679.00−0.03%
Gold Futures3,366.40+0.22%
Crude Oil (WTI) Futures68.24−0.71%
Bitcoin116,436−2.92%
10‑yr Treasury Yield4.429%−0.13 pp

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🔭 What to Watch Today

Key data drops, tariffs and tech headlines could jolt today’s tape. Here’s what traders are tracking.

  • June CPI (8:30 AM ET): Core inflation is expected to tick up to ~3.0%, keeping Fed-rate cut hopes in check. → WSJ
  • Big-Bank Earnings (Pre-market): JPMorgan, Citigroup & Wells Fargo report Q2 results—margin trends and credit quality in focus. → Reuters
  • 17% Tariff on Mexican Tomatoes: U.S. withdrawal from the 2019 accord reinstates duties, likely raising produce prices 6-10%. → Reuters
  • Nvidia Cleared to Resume AI-Chip Exports: Shares jump ~4% after U.S. signal to green-light H20 GPU sales to China, lifting the chip complex. → Reuters
  • China Q2 GDP Beats (5.2% YoY): Better-than-forecast growth tempers global slowdown fears but data under the hood remains mixed. → Reuters

    • 🔥 The Big Bullet

    What happened: President Trump fired off a fresh trade broadside, unveiling 30% tariffs on all goods from the European Union and Mexico starting Aug. 1, 2025. In two Truth Social letters he cited “chronic trade deficits” with Europe and Mexico’s “fentanyl failures,” vowing any retaliation “will be met with higher levies.”
    → NBC Washington, Investopedia


    Why it matters:

    • Markets on a knife-edge. Analysts warn a new “tariff doom-loop” could snap the S&P 500’s summer rally if Europe and Mexico hit back, just as global equities flirt with record highs.
    • Inflation flare-up risk. A 30% blanket duty would lift import-price indexes within weeks; economists at Moody’s estimate it could tack 0.4 pp onto headline CPI by Q4 — a déjà-vu of the 2018 steel-tariff shock.
    • Sector shake-out. U.S. steel and aluminum mills cheer, but auto-makers, medical-device firms and craft-beer brewers (who source EU glass/aluminum) face margin pinches, echoing the cross-fire effects of Trump’s first-term tariff cycle.

     

    What’s next: Expect frantic shuttle diplomacy before Aug. 1. Brussels hints at swift WTO action and “smart” counter-tariffs on flagship U.S. brands; Mexico eyes stepped-up fentanyl policing to win exemptions. Watch the July CPI print, Q2 earnings calls (guidance cuts?), and positioning in safe-havens like gold and cybersecurity stocks as traders hedge supply-chain shocks.


    💡 Opportunity Watch

    Amid policy shifts, here are spots where smart investors can capitalize. Tech hiring booms and crypto inflows offer solid plays.

    • Tech Sector Hiring Surge (e.g., Professional Services): GOP bill's R&D deductions could add jobs, boosting stocks in tech and scientific services. → Washington Examiner
    • Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., BlackRock’s iShares): Record inflows signal institutional buy-in, with lower volatility making it a hedge against dollar decline. → Fortune
    • Cybersecurity in Healthcare: Shadow AI risks may drive demand for data protection firms as regulations tighten. → Washington Examiner

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    🧭 Policy & Market Ripples

    • Mass Deportations' Economic Hit: AEI predicts negative net migration shrinking GDP by 0.3-0.4%, impacting labor and spending. → Fortune
    • Resurgence of Left-Wing Terrorism: 700% rise in attacks on ICE, echoing historical waves and potentially unsettling security stocks. → Washington Examiner
    • JPMorgan's Bullish U.S. Outlook: Investment boss dismisses 'sell America' fears, citing institutional strength amid debt concerns. → Fortune
    • Trump Legal Wins Muddled: SCOTUS victories on injunctions, but lower courts block policies like birthright citizenship. → Washington Examiner


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    “Whether socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” — Warren Buffett

    That's your briefing for today – stay vigilant, invest wisely, and remember, personal responsibility beats government handouts every time. Tight lines if you're fishing this summer.
    Fredrick Frost
    Editor, MorningBullets

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